The World T-20
Qualification starts tomorrow here is how I think the teams will fare using
little more than observation and intuitive experience.
There are 14 nations
competing for six places in next year’s World T-20 to be held in India. There
are many combinations and permutations as to how results can go but this is my
unscientific predictions of how things will work out for the various nations and
their final placing.
In the first of my
groups let me introduce the Almost Certain’s:
- Ireland.
Winner of almost everything available for associate nations over the last
10 years or so Ireland are almost certain to run out as winners of this
tournament too. Too strong with too much depth in their squad expect them
to win it all despite recent losses to Scotland and having both of their
warm up games abandoned due to rain.
- Afghanistan.
The only nation to consistently challenge Ireland over the last 8 years or
so. Perennial runners up in almost every associate competition. With depth
in batting, one of the best bowling attacks in the associate world (if not
the bigger world) and confidence to match their attack. The only thing
going against them in this comp is the different conditions they will find
themselves in. Nevertheless, if Ireland doesn’t win it Afghanistan will.
- Scotland.
Bungled out of the previous qualifier and failing to make what seemed like
a guaranteed top six place after a shock loss to Bermuda and patchy
performances elsewhere the Scots are back to looking mean and hungry
shaking off their earlier compliancy. Local conditions should help them
into a guaranteed top 6 placing this time as will a new attacking top
order that still retains the clinical class of last qualifier won’t hurt
their chances.
- Netherlands.
The breakthrough stars of the last World T-20 who shocked the associate
world by beating Ireland in phenomenal circumstances in the group round to
progress into the super ten where they went on to shock the whole world by
beating full member nation England in humbling circumstances. Their
road since (and slightly before) then has been bumpy which included them
losing their one day status and losing various top players in varying circumstances
But the Dutch are too good to be kept down for long and they have already
forced their way back into the World Cricket League Championship and will
be determined to stay on the world stage by qualifying in the top six.
The second of my
groups competing for a top six finish is what I would call The Serious
Challengers:
- Nepal.
New boys on the block in many respects but Nepal have been making
consistent headway and progress over the last decade culminating in
qualification for the previous World T-20 where they beat fellow
challengers Hong Kong and upset long time geographical rivals Afghanistan.
They only failed to progress into the super ten because Bangladesh had a
better run rate. Conditions that do not favour them and a continued over
reliance of a couple of star players will make it hard for them but they
should have enough in the tank to push for a top six place, or at least
get close.
- Hong
Kong. The surprise package of the previous qualifiers Hong Kong seemed to
come from nowhere to overtake longer established nations who thought they
had it in the bag to qualify for the World T-20 in Bangladesh. Defeating
the host nation in the group round showed the world that qualifying for the
tournament was no anomaly. Going on to claim One Day Status ahead of more
established nations announced a shakeup of the old world order in
associate cricket and garnered respect that they will be keen to hold
onto. Unfamiliar conditions will work against them but they will be
pushing hard for a top six finish.
- Papua
New Guinea. Another new challenger on the block the rise of PNG cricket to
world level has come about in recent years by dominating the East Asia
Pacific region for almost as long as the league has been in place. They
claimed One Day Status ahead of associate nation giants falling down the
rankings as PNG continue to rise. A top 8th place finish in the previous
qualifying tournament was disappointing to a team who has bigger things in
mind and on the imminent horizon.
- United
Arab Emirates. The old New Challengers, the UAE have been on or around the
scene for over a decade. Previous high of appearances in world cup were
replaced by years in the wilderness. A fight back over the last 6 years
culminated in them regaining One Day Status and appearing in the 2015 world
cup. No doubt keen to hold onto their regained status of world challenges
they will fight hard for a top six finish. Conditions will be against
them.
- Canada.
A previous giant of associate cricket Canada have fallen and fallen hard.
Losing their one day international status and tumbling down to division 3
of the world cricket league Canada seem to be in free fall. They still
have some strong aspects to their batting and could cause an upset or two
and maybe even claim a top six upset to start to regain lost heights but
finishing outside the top six seems more likely.
- Kenya.
Kenya are also a previous giant of associate cricket whose free fall out
of One Day international Status and the World Cricket League was only
reprieved when Ireland and Afghanistan were promoted out of it and into
the ICC ODI Championship. Since then they have little opportunity to prove
that things have changed for the better and more of the same can be
expected from them in this tournament too.
- Namibia.
Namibia have overtaken Kenya to be the best of the southern Africa
associate nations but their occasional flashes of brilliance are often
curtailed by failing to produce the big effort in the big games when it
really matters. They seem to be in the middle of a mediocre cycle at the
moment and expect that to continue for the duration of this competition.
- Jersey.
Gaining qualification by winning the European division one tournament
Jersey have leapfrogged higher ranked competitors and find themselves
where they want to be, competing for even higher honours. Expect them to
do their best to challenge higher ranked nations but this could
realistically be regarded as a learning curve for the Channel Islanders. A
steep learning curve.
- United
States of America. With their governing body in disarray, both before and
after a suspension from the ICC for a multitude of reasons, America are
one of the few teams who effectively have no chance of progressing to a
top six finish. Their star player has decided to try his hand at making it
in the West Indies Caribbean Premier League and a training camp (organized
by the players themselves, not the governing body in America, (still the USACA
at the moment)) predictable fell apart due to lack of finances. A team
with some talent but that hardly plays together due to the vast size of
their nation may show the odd moment of goodness but will be hard pressed
to do much more.
- Oman.
Oman hasn’t played a game of cricket together since they won their
regional tournament to get into this qualifier last year. They have flip-flopped
with America for the wooden spoon every other time they have played at
this level. Expect that to happen again this time round too.
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